A Daily Measure of the SARS-CoV-2 Daily Reproduction Number for all Countries
Tahar Zamene Boulmezaoud, Luis Álvarez, Miguel Colom, Jean-Michel Morel
⚠ This is a preprint. It may change before it is accepted for publication.

Abstract

We propose a transparent method calculating every three hours for any country a 'daily reproduction number (DRN)' from the daily count of newly detected cases. The same method applies to compute a daily reproduction number from the daily death count, which yields therefore another independent prediction of the expansion of the pandemic. A good experimental fit of both DRN curves is observed in many countries. Both curves are similar, with a delay that depends on each country’s detection and administrative processing delays. Both DRNs can be consulted daily online in the demo tag associated with this paper. We refer the readers to the online demo to experiment by themselves. The calculation of this DRN is based on a recent paper by Tahar Boulmezaoud.

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